Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
